09/15/2006

Monday Night Prediction: Miami vs Baltimore
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by NM Arun Sharma
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September 18th 2006

  Miami Sharks (1.0-2.0) vs Baltimore Kingfishers (2.0-1.0) 

  Starts at 7:30 PM ET       Time Control - Game 90 with 30 second increment    

Miami Sharks			Baltimore Kingfishers
GM Julio Becerra - 2624			GM Pawel Blehm - 2593
IM Alejandro Moreno Roman - 2437			IM Larry Kaufman - 2359
FM Marcel Martinez - 2415			NM Ray Kaufman - 2288
Luis Barredo - 2160			FM Ralph Zimmer - 2253
Avg Rating - 2409			Avg Rating - 2373
Miami Total -------	0.0	0.0	------- Baltimore Total

This rematch of last year's championship match is certainly a very important one for both teams as Baltimore suffered a tough defeat last week, and Miami is off to a slow 1-2 start overall.  Both teams are wielding a very similar lineup to last year's match (with the interesting twist of FM Martinez having moved down to board three, and IM L Kaufman up to board two, I guess neither wants to face the other must be the reason for this). 

 On board one, like any match between GMs of the USCL, it's very difficult to give any advantage, but with GM Becerra coming off two solid wins and having the White pieces, he might have a slight edge.

 Board two, IM Larry Kaufman will have hopefully have recovered from a rather unfortunate meltdown due to time pressure in a completely winning position last week as he'll surely have his hands full with IM Moreno Roman who showed what he's capable of with an impressive win last week.  Overall though, IM Kaufman has just been too solid through the entirety of the USCL and having White I give him the slight edge. 

  Board three pits two players who I'm sure are eager to reverse the way they've opened the season, but I can't deny Martinez's rating advantage, his performance from last year, and having White, I think Miami has to have a pretty decent edge there.

   Probably the reverse holds on board four as FM Zimmer has a pretty decent rating advantage and the White pieces so I think he has the edge.  Overall once again, I'm unable to make any sense of all the theories I've concoted so I'm going to choose in favor of a 2-2 tie. 
Who knows, if I keep predicting that someday I might even be right!

(FM Ron Young also predicts a 2-2 tie. Since the predictions have been made John Rouleau has replaced Ray Kaufman on Board 3, yet both prognosticators will stay with their original predictions)

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