10/11/2006

Week 7 Predictions
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by FM Ron Young
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Below are the Week 6 scores of our result guessing battle.



Ron (27)
Arun (29)
San Francisco vs New York
TIE 2-2
TIE 2-2
Carolina vs Philadelphia
Phi 2.5-1.5
Phi 3-1
Boston vs Baltimore
Bos 2.5-1.5
Bal 2.5-1.5
Tennessee vs Dallas
Dal 2.5-1.5
Dal 3-1
Seattle vs Miami
TIE 2-2
TIE 2-2

When our prognosticators picked the correct team, I have made it blue, and if they also picked the correct score, 
I have made it red in the chart above.

Ron was exceptionally bad in Week 6, with only one correct result out of 5 matches, and not even getting the exact
score in that match. Arun faired a bit better, by getting two correct matches with the exact correct score. In order
to save our hosts embarrassment, I will no longer mention the independant predictor who has his own blog detailing his
picks and is basically scoring better than both of our hosts combined! In any case over here with the amateurs at the USCL
website, Arun now has a convincing lead over Ron.

Arun Sharma: 29+7 = 36
Ron Young:  27+2 = 29

Let's take a look at this week's predictions:



New York Knights


Carolina Cobras      
GM Pascal Charbonneau - 2500

IM Lev Milman - 2523
IM Irina Krush - 2445

FM Matthew Hoekstra - 2401
IM Jay Bonin - 2354

FM Oleg Zaikov - 2325
WGM Jennifer Shahade - 2318

NM Craig Jones - 2280
Avg Rating - 2404


Avg Rating - 2382
New York Total -------
0.0
0.0
------- Carolina Total

	New York will be looking to bounce back, while
Carolina will be happy just to bounce. Look for both
sides to get their wish. Bonin playing White is worth
something, and is only fair as well. After all, the
man has paid his dues. New York, 2.5-1.5.


Baltimore Kingfishers


Philadelphia Masterminds
FM Bruci Lopez - 2433

GM Jan Ehlvest - 2665
IM Larry Kaufman - 2359

FM Bryan Smith - 2442
NM Ray Kaufman - 2288

IM Richard Costigan - 2287
WGM Katerina Rohonyan - 2260

NM Elvin Wilson - 2240
Avg Rating - 2335


Avg Rating - 2409
Baltimore Total -------
0.0
0.0
------- Philadelphia Total

	Ehlvest played impressively in his USCL debut, but his
strength did not seem to rub off on his teammates. I
assume it was the weather. I expect it to be less
sticky this week and so pick Philadelphia to prevail
by the usual margin (i.e., the margin I usually
predict a team to prevail by [i.e., one point]).



Tennessee Tempo


Boston Blitz
IM Ron Burnett - 2449

GM Larry Christiansen - 2633
FM Todd Andrews - 2360

FM William Kelleher - 2402
FM Peter Bereolos - 2319

NM Charles Riordan - 2283
NM Jerry Wheeler - 2200

NM Ilya Krasik - 2162
Avg Rating - 2332


Avg Rating - 2370
Tennessee Total -------
0.0
0.0
------- Boston Total

	Tennessee is putting up their top four, so they are
clearly taking this match seriously. And unlike
Seattle, they are giving just enough time odds to be
insulting without incurring a serious disadvantage. I
salute their strategy but grovel before Boston’s
strength. Boston by a point.



San Francisco Mechanics


Seattle Sluggers
IM Josh Friedel - 2513

GM Gregory Serper - 2570
IM Vinay Bhat - 2463

FM Slava Mikhailuk - 2438
IM David Pruess - 2459

FM John Readey - 2331
Sam Shankland - 2106

Michael Lee - 2102
Avg Rating - 2394


Avg Rating - 2360
San Francisco Total -------
0.0 0.0
------- Seattle Total

	If this is not the most anticipated match of the
season it’s because people just didn’t anticipate it.
Seattle’s disdain for draws seems to apply equally to
draw odds, if giving a 30-minute handicap on two
boards means anything. I believe it does and pick the
Frisconian's to win by a point and grab command of the
draw odds race.




Predictions for Week 7:



Ron (29)
Arun (36)
Miami vs Dallas
Dal 2.5-1.5
Mia 2.5-1.5
New York vs Carolina
NY 2.5-1.5
NY 3-1
Baltimore vs Philadelphia
Phi 2.5-1.5
Phi 3-1
Tennessee vs Boston
Bos 2.5-1.5
Bos 2.5-1.5
San Francisco vs Seattle
SF 2.5-1.5
SF 2.5-1.5


Scoring works as follows:

Predictors get 2 points for each correct result (picking the correct
winner or a tie)

Predictors get 1 bonus point for picking the correct score in 2.5-1.5
match or 2-2 tie

Predictors get 2 bonus points for picking the correct score in a 3-1
match (or 3.5-0.5/4-0)


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