10/15/2006

Philadelphia vs Carolina Prediction
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by NM Arun Sharma
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Philadelphia Masterminds vs. Carolina Cobras
 
 
    When I made my preseason predictions for this season, I had predicted these two teams to finish in fourth and fifth in the East and though that's where they currently stand, I would have assumed that this match would have little in the way of playoff implications and thus would almost surely not have chosen this for Monday's "feature" match.  Clearly though our league commissioner puts little stock in my predictions (I fear perhaps rightly so as those of you who've been keeping track can attest to) as he, despite what I thought, still chose this match for Monday.  As much as it pains me, it may be that he's actually alot smarter than I am as this match actually turns out to contain an enormous amount of playoff implications and is likely the most important match of the week.
 
    These two teams met a couple of weeks ago, but unlike most other pairs of teams which have done the same, we have a true rematch in this case as three of the four boards pit the same opponents as the previous match (in each case the victor last time having the Black pieces, though as the league statistics show, Black winning is not much of a surprise in this league).  Philadelphia comes into this match having drawn the last two matches (both of which they were heavily favored in) and really must win this match to keep themselves in serious playoff contention.  Carolina arrives on a bit of a run as despite being huge underdogs the past couple weeks have managed a draw and a win (the former against the Philly team) to put themselves solidly in contention but like the Philly team really need this win to keep themselves in the thick of things.
 
 
    On Board 1 we have GM Ehlvest vs. IM Milman.  The last encounter was a pretty dominating performance by GM Ehlvest, but IM Milman showed last week that he's capable of turning around such an initial display (ie winning vs. GM Charbonneau despite their first encounter being a slaughter the other way) even when he has the Black pieces.  As much as I'd like to think that last week was the place where IM Milman was going to turn his season around, GM Ehlvest is just too strong and has a big edge.
 
    Board 2 FM Hoekstra faces FM Smith.  FM Hoekstra pulled off a surprising upset last time to lead the Carolina team to the draw (unfortunately one of the few bright spots of his season) while FM Smith should be eager to turn things around as the Masterminds really need better production out of him to continue their playoff run.  On the whole, I have to give a slight edge to the player who was the victor last time and now has the White pieces, but this match is a lot closer than Board 1.
 
    Board 3 pits the real superstars of each team in IM Costigan vs. FM Zaikov.  Both of these players are still in the hunt for the league MVP and each is certainly a big reason why their team is still in the playoff race with both coming up with some big wins. Again I have to give Costigan the edge as he won last time and has white this week.
 
    Board 4 I finally have an original match to discus in WFM Levina vs. FM M Shahade. 
This is WFM Levina's debut in the USCL, and there likely hasn't been a situation where her team needed her more as a good result here would go a long way towards Carolina's playoff hopes.  Given it is her debut, it's somewhat difficult to assess her chances (not that I've been successful in assessing board four games anyway), but despite her rating disadvantage she does have White.  Despite this I still have to think Philly has to have a slight edge here.
 
 
    When in a playoff race of any kind, a team's momentum often can be more important than how the match looks on paper and that's definitely one department where Carolina certainly has the edge.   In entirety though, I think Philadelphia is just too strong from top to bottom so I think they'll take this by the narrowest margin, Philadelphia 2.5-1.5.
 



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