After the amazing drama that occurred in the last week of the regular season, it's going to be difficult for even the playoffs to top the excitement of last week, but I have a feeling the finals match, whoever might be playing, will do just that (though at the same time, the Carolina path to the playoffs could take many a year to top so next time you see one of those shows about the most dramatic sports moments of the century, feel free to send that in, as I certainly think it's a worthy contender).  Given that Carolina was the major focus of last week's drama let's begin with their match to see how our Cinderella story might fair in the postseason.

 

 

 

As I stated above, I think Carolina might well have used up a year's worth of luck in last week's drama to make it this far so they might be out of luck when this match rolls around.  I would expect these teams to go with the lineups of GM Charbonneau/IM Krush/FM Hess/Herman and IM Milman/FM Hoekstra/FM Zaikov/NM Jones.  The two meetings of these teams in the regular season ended with each side claiming a victory by the narrowest margin.  IM Milman did manage to upset GM Charbonneau with the Black pieces in the second encounter, and if he can do it again, Carolina has a great chance to win, but I still have to think New York has a big edge on the first two boards.  Board 3 is a tough one, FM Hess has played two impressive games in the past two weeks, but FM Zaikov has also been impressive all season so it's too close for me to call while I think Board 4 has to favor NM Jones who went on rampage in the final weeks scoring a whopping 5.5 out of his last 6 games.  Overall though with New York having draw odds and a decent advantage on the top boards, I think New York advances here about 75% of the time.

 

 

I would assume that New York will go with the same lineup as the Wildcard and that Boston will hold nothing back putting forth a lineup of GM Christiansen/GM Perelshteyn/NM Martirosov/NM Krasik making a very tough challenge for New York.  When Boston faced New York early in the season, the Blitz used this lineup for a solid 3-1 victory (spearheaded by NM Krasik's wild victory over FM Privman).  New York did manage to draw the second go around, but not against the fearsome double GM lineup.  I would expect New York to choose Black given GM Charbonneau's success with it vs. GM Christiansen to this point, and the fact that FM Hess has fared much better with Black this season.  Board 1 is a close one given the history, but Board 2 must favor the Blitz.  The bottom two boards are tougher to call, but I think New York probably has the slight edge on 3, and 4 is probably a toss up (Herman did get the better of their first encounter, but based on Krasik's overall play this season, I'm really not prepared to give either player a real edge here).  As much as I'd like to predict New York to pull off the upset here (mainly to make myself look like a genius for predicting them to win it all at the beginning of the season), this Boston lineup just seems too strong to me and combined with their draw odds, Boston will advance here about 65% of the time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I would expect Seattle to go with what I think is without question their strongest lineup of GM Serper/IM Orlov/FM Readey/Lee.  Dallas is a bit harder to pin down as they seem to have many more possible lineups which are all about the same strength, but  the most likely one might be GM Panchanathan/IM Stopa/IM Vavrak/Lopez.  In that situation, I think Board 1 probably is about even with Seattle having the slight edge on 2 and 4 and Dallas the edge on 3.   On the whole, Seattle probably has a very small edge on the boards so along with both their draw odds and their 1.5-0.5 edge in the regular season matches, I think they advance about 65% here.

 

 

 

I would again assume Seattle would go with the same lineup they used in the Wildcard while the Mechanics most likely lineup seems to be IM Friedel/IM Bhat/IM Pruess/Shankland, a near mirror of their amazing Week 9 struggle.  It's difficult to guess which color Seattle might choose as both the Board 1 and Board 4 games (both games which occurred in both of the regular season matches between these teams) seem to suggest they want White on both 1 and 4 so it's difficult to say which they'll choose.   I honestly think all four of these boards are very close so I really can't assign a board edge to either team, but the Mechanics do have draw odds on their side so I think they take this about 60% of the time.

 

 

 

Finals:  Boston Blitz vs. San Francisco Mechanics

 

At least at this point we should have a match which doesn't seem to have a clear favorite as there are no draw odds, and with these teams not having met in the regular season (and amassing very impressive records of 8-2 and 8.5-1.5), we should be in for a very entertaining struggle.  I would hope that IM Friedel, given that he'll be facing his old team should this match occur, will not choose this as his moment to sabotage the San Francisco team (read his interview if you don't know what I mean) as if he doesn't this will definitely be a worthy struggle.  Once again, assuming the same lineups which got them here, I think Boston might have a small edge on the top two boards (GM Perelshteyn on board 2 might be considered a bit unfair, but the Mechanics players have told me that IM Bhat never loses so hopefully for them that theory holds though this match).  Board 3 should favor the Mechanics while Board 4 seems like a toss up.  I honestly think it would be difficult to find a match which is closer to 50/50 than this encounter, but this is one match that can't end in a tie, and the commissioner didn't have me write this to chicken out of choosing a winner so I think due to IM Bhat's invincibility and their edge on Board 3, San Francisco wins the Championship about 55% in this match.