11/29/2006

USCL Finals Prediction
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by FM Ron Young
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November 29th 2006

  San Francisco Mechanics (8.5-1.5) vs New York Knights (4.5-5.5)

 Starts at 8:30 PM ET       Time Control - Game 60 with 30 second increment    

 
San Francisco Mechanics


New York Knights
IM Josh Friedel - 2513

GM Pascal Charbonneau - 2500
IM David Pruess - 2459

IM Irina Krush - 2445
IM Dmitry Zilberstein - 2435

FM Robert Hess - 2369
Sam Shankland - 2106

Matthew Herman - 2172
Avg Rating - 2378


Avg Rating - 2372
San Francisco Total -------
0.0
0.0
------- New York Total


With only one match to pick this week, I guess I have
no excuse for not dealing with specifics. On Board
One, I see White’s impetuous e5?! advance leading to
the eventual loss of that pawn. Friedel will seek
salvation with a desperate attack, beginning with the
standard two bishop sacrifice on h7 and g7. White’s
later sacrifice of a rook on e6 will cause so much
excitement that the server crashes. In fifteen
minutes or so, when service is restored, Black’s King
will reach a8 and White will give perpetual with Nb6+,
Nc8+, etc.

On Board 2, Krush ought to get an edge from the
opening. In fact, it will come so easily that she’ll
wonder why on earth Pruess was awarded the Samford in
preference to her. She doesn’t realize that the day of
the high-flown literary essay typified by Benjamin and
Wolff no longer impresses the judges, who prefer the
modern, gritty style pioneered by Kreiman and
achieving its full earthiness with Shahade. Anyway,
the game will reach a point where Irina must either do
something aggressive or choose to wait for Black to
lash out in frustration. She will decide to wait,
figuring that Pruess will not simply sit tight. But,
surprise! He will. By the time she realizes this, the
game will have petered irretrievably into nothing.

Zilberstein will gain an advantage vs. Hess and face a
similar decision. Should he play the subtle, quiet
move that will be appreciated by one percent of the
top one percent of spectators, or will he want to win
the adoration of the masses, and maybe, just maybe,
“Game of the Week” with the crazy sacrificial move?
I’m afraid he won’t be able to resist the latter, to
his eventual regret when Hess finds the banal but
effective refutation.

So San Francisco will find itself needing to win on
Board Four to force the match into overtime. But as
Shankland admits in his blog, Herman is a genius. I
know from my own experience how tough it is to beat a
genius. In fact, I have never done so. It is possible
to make a draw with one once in a while, though, as I
did with Noam Elkies in 1979. I think Shankland will
manage this too. However, it won’t be enough. The
Knights will wear the garter as New York prevails by
2.5-1.5.


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