West Predictions:

1^st Place:  San Francisco Mechanics.

Strongest Lineups: 

1^st:  Wolff / Friedel

2^nd / 3^rd:  Two of Bhat / McCambridge / Pruess / Donaldson

4^th:  Naroditsky / Young

(Can’t use Wolff, McCambridge, and Naroditstky all together)

Strength of strongest lineups:  Though San Francisco’s lineup from week to week should be of very similar shape, it’s hard to find fault with that shape as the virtual guarantee of having an IM on board three each week is a hard one to come by for any team.  On top of this they can use a double GM lineup (though Bhat may not technically be a GM yet, given he has all the norms, I think it’s safe to assume he’s one for the purpose of this article), they certainly seem strong enough here.  Score:  9.

Flexibility:  Not only will the Mechanics have an IM on board three each match, they have a rather large number of ways of doing so which should keep the other teams guessing.  The one minor drawback is they can’t generally put a master strength player on board four.  Score:  8.

Underrated Players:  San Francisco definitely has a fair share of these with Bhat weighing in at only 2465.  Even putting aside the fact that he has a performance rating over 2750 in his first two seasons, the fact that he just got his third GM norm suggests 2465 might be a tad lower than his actual strength.  Also, the two youngsters Naroditsky and Young who will be manning board four now both being well over 2100 should be a reasonable help too.  Score:  8.

Dedication:  If there was any category last season that I felt was responsible for the Mechanics winning the crown last year, this would have been it for sure.  The team is a close group of players who take each match seriously and prepare together.  Adding the fact that they have a resident GM who coaches the team as part of his job, I don’t think any team can match San Francisco in this category.  Score: 10.

Other Factors:  Though I’m sure the Mechanics are glad to have Wolff available to play on board one to give them a bit more flexibility in lineups than last season, the fact that he has been out of competitive play for so long has to be a minor concern.  This San Francisco team is probably even stronger than last season’s champions, but the overall improvement for the league as a whole makes me think it’s unlikely they will be as dominant as last season, but I still expect them to take the West regular season crown. 

Score:  6.

Total Score:  41

Projected Record:  7 – 3

2^nd Place:  Dallas Destiny.

Strongest lineups: 

1^st:  Kuljasevic

2^nd:  Bartholomew

3^rd:  Stopa

4^th:  Guadalupe / Zorigt

1^st / 2^nd:  Two of Kuljasevic / Bartholomew / Stopa

3^rd:  Zaremba / Kiewra

4^th:  Milisitis / Guadalupe / Zorigt

1^st:  Bartholomew

2^nd:  Stopa

3^rd:  Zaremba

4^th:  Kiewra

Strength of strongest lineups:  Like New York and San Francisco, Dallas is fortunate in that they can have a solid IM on board three.  They however don’t have the superstar power of most of the other teams at the top.  Score:  7.

Flexibility:  Though they don’t have a superstar on their team they still do have a fair mix of different lineups and the ability to stack either of the lower two boards when they wish by putting Stopa on three and Kiewra on four as desired.  Score:  8.

Underrated Players:  It is somewhat difficult to gauge whether several of these players who haven’t been in the US that long have ratings reflecting their actual strength.  There is little doubt in mind that one of them in particular is rated well below his actual strength as Stopa was incredibly impressive last season and really I think the main reason why Dallas was able to turn their season around.  To now have him as a possible board three and barely rated over 2400 could be a huge edge.  Score:  7.

Dedication:  Though the Dallas team has always been a close-knit group, it’s been somewhat rumored that this has worked against them to a certain extent as it’s often said that they spend more time partying together than preparing.  I have a feeling that after their really close call last season though, that they’ll be able to come up with an appropriate mix of both of those activities to be successful.  Score:  8.

Other Factors:  Dallas was one of the teams favored to do well when the League first began due to their huge player pool, but really failed to perform in 2005.  They finally hit their stride near the end of the 2006 almost earning an unexpected place in the Semifinals.  It seems about time for them to take their place as one of the dominating teams in the league as has been expected of them and this season could be when it happens.  Score:  8.

Total Score:  38.

Projected Record:  5.5-4.5

Strongest Lineups: 

1^st:  Becerra

2^nd / 3^rd:  Two of Lugo / Perea / Martinez

4^th:  Mederos

1^st:  Becerra
2^nd:  Lugo / Perea / Martinez

3^rd:  Moreno Roman / Espino

4^th:  Cardona

(Can’t use Lugo and Moreno Roman together here)

Strength of strongest lineups:  The Sharks are a team which should be able to semi-regularly put a 2400 player on board three and also have the nice option of using a near 2300 player on board four should they wish it.  Score:  8.

Flexibility:  This has been one minor worry for the Sharks in the past two seasons as though they have a nice batch options for the lower boards, the two times they’ve been forced to play without their rock Becerra, they have not fared well.  However this season they have a new 2400+ player (Perea) to join the fray if that should occur.  Score: 7.

Underrated Players:  Both Becerra and Martinez are likely to fit this bill as Becerra of course being above 2600 along with the 2^nd and 1^st place finisher in the league MVP race the past two seasons certainly qualifies, and after his rough 2006 season Martinez seems to have turned his game around in recent times having scored his first GM norm.  One thing that has seemed to plague Miami though is that unlike most other teams they don’t have a powerful underrated young player to man the lower boards, and I’m not sure they’ve solved that for this season either.  Score:  6.

Dedication:  The Sharks are definitely a very closely bound team who likely prepare together, but as shown last season, many of them seem to have quite a few other professional responsibilities (their big tourney at the end of September springs to mind), and that can always be a hindrance to preparation plans.  Score:  7.

Other Factors:  Miami is fortunate to have a female on their roster this season to alleviate the rating cap as well as three players:  Becerra, Martinez, and Lugo all of whom play very well online.  In addition, after their disappointing 2006 season, the Sharks are matched with both Carolina and Tennessee twice, both of whom I predict to finish in the bottom of the division, and San Francisco only once.  Score:  9.

Total Score:  37.

Projected Record:  5.5 – 4.5.

4^th Place:  Seattle Sluggers.

Strongest Lineups: 

1^st:  Serper

2^nd:  Orlov

3^rd:  Milat / Readey

4^th:  Sinanan

1^st:  Serper / Orlov

2^nd / 3^rd:  Two of Mikhailuk / Schmidt / Milat / Readey

4^th:  Lee / Sinanan

Strength of strongest lineups:  Like most other teams they have a very strong best lineup which can beat anyone in the league, but not quite the overall power that some of the double GM + one IM lineups that New York and San Francisco have.  .  Score:  8.

Flexibility:  It seems likely based on last season that Seattle’s lineup each week will have Serper in it every time).  This is a minor concession for the guessing games, but they definitely have many options for boards two and three as a consolation.  One unfortunate thing for them is their probable strongest lineup from last season of Serper / Orlov / Readey / Lee is no longer legal.  Score:  7.

Underrated Players:  Seattle’s big trumps here are their two board four players Lee and Sinanan both of whom are now around 100 points higher than their league ratings indicate.  One of the keys to Seattle’s regular season success last season was their board four dominance, and they may have the tools to do that again.  It will probably be tougher this go around though as several teams can put near 2300 players in that slot.  Score:  7.

Dedication:  It’s difficult to know for sure how much the Sluggers prepare together, but their rock Serper showed his dedication via spending time in post mortem analysis with the other team members so I would guess there will be some amount of pre-match preparation.   Also the fact that their likely most common board four player Lee is a student of Orlov bodes well for that.  On the other hand, with Milat residing in Canada it’s not clear how truly convenient such sessions will be for the entire team.  Score:  7.

Other Factors:  Seattle was definitely one team which did not exhibit expansion team blues last season with their impressive record, and I would guess a year’s experience would only add to their strength.  They will have to somewhat pay for their success though as they likely have the toughest schedule of any team in the West.  Score:  6.

Total Score:  35

Projected Record:  4.5 – 5.5

5^th Place:  Carolina Cobras.

Strongest Lineups: 

1^st:  Milman

2^nd:  Schroer

3^rd:  Chumachenko

4^th:  Bapat / Timmel

1^st:  Milman

2^nd:  Schroer / Chumachenko

3^rd:  Zaikov

4^th:  Aliyev / Jones

(Can’t use Chumachenko and Aliyev together here)

Strength of strongest lineups:  There is no doubt that Carolina will generally be outgunned on the top two boards as they were last season which they overcame with super impressive play on the lower boards.  However, with nearly every other team in the league having an improved lineup overall with there’s virtually the same, it will be even harder for that to be enough this season.  Score:  5.

Flexibility:  This is one thing the Cobras definitely do not have in abundance with Milman really needed to maintain a good rating hold on the rating cap, and in the past two seasons attempting to use anyone besides Zaikov and Jones on the lower boards has not proved very fruitful.  Score:  6.

Underrated Players:  Probably Zaikov and Jones via their last year’s performance fall in this category, but probably not by quite as much as many of the youth of the other teams.  Score:  6.

Dedication:  As mostly students like the Dallas team, it’s probably tough for the Carolina team to likely put in the preparation they’d like to into their matches.  Milman does definitely seem to be fairly dedicated to improving though as he did recently score his second GM norm.  Hopefully this season he can exhibit the preparations which lead him to achieving that while simultaneously leading his team to do the same.  Score:  7.

Other Factors:   Despite having a very rough season in 2006, Milman may well perform better this year especially since he might find the competition at the top in the West a tad more manageable than the East (no slight intended to the board ones in the West, but realistically ten of the top twelve rated players being in the East does lend credence to this).  However they may face tougher tests on Boards 3+4, making Zaikov and Jones impressive result from 2006 more difficult to come by. It still seems that Carolina will need more than a little luck on their side to pull off the Cinderella act again, as the competition keeps getting stronger.  Score:  6.

Total Score:  30.

Projected Record:  3.5 -6.5

6^th Place:  Tennessee Tempo.

Strongest Lineups: 

1^st:  Burnett

2^nd:  Andrews

3^rd:  Bereoles

4^th:  Bick / Wheeler

Strength of strongest lineups:  As the one team in the league whose best lineup falls far below the rating cap, obviously the Tempo will be facing an uphill climb each match as they did last season.  Score:  2.

Flexibility:  As a team struggling to submit a roster which is as close to the rating cap as possible, flexibility is another thing they really do not have as any attempt to field a team without any of their top three players would result in an even more severe rating disadvantage.  Score:  4.

Underrated Players:  Though the Tempo do have some youth to guide them in Wu and Phay, when they are so far below the rating cap to begin with, and those two players likely to still be far out rated on board four, this edge can only do so much.  Score:  5.

Dedication:  Tennessee does seem very interested in putting forth a lot of effort and preparation into their matches, but that’s easier said than done as Bick and Larson both live out of state and Bereoles on the other side of the state.  While I’m sure they will still make the effort, I doubt they’ll be able to do as much as most other teams due to physical location.  Score:  6.

Other Factors:  A big cause of Tennessee’s overall malaise during their initial season was constantly throwing away good positions and often being victims of time trouble induced losses.  I would hope that they will do a better job of avoiding having as many calamities due to such factors, but they still will be using almost the same lineup they did last season, and with most other teams in the league having improved in numerous ways, they’ll still have their work cut out for them.  Score:  5.

Total Score:  22.

Projected Record:  1.5 – 8.5.