08/26/07

Monday Night Prediction
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by NM Arun Sharma
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For this inaugural battle in season three of the USCL we have the two expansion teams NJ and Queens doing battle in what should be a great kickoff to the regular season.  All the talk of expansion teams needing time to get into a groove (in any sport) seems unlikely to affect these teams as on paper they both have very powerful lineups.

Board 1 we have Benjamin taking on Stripunsky.  As most GM vs. GM battles in the USCL are, it's tough to know whom to give the edge.  My tendency in the past has been to give the edge to the player with the White pieces even though historically thus far in the league that hasn't seemed to be backed up by the numbers.  It nevertheless still seems like the only real way to ascribe an edge to either team on this board so that's what I'll do. (Slight Edge New Jersey)

Board 2 of Vovsha vs. Bartell has Queens sporting a fairly significant rating edge and the White pieces here, I have to give them a fair edge. (Edge Queens)

Board 3 seems like an interesting question with Molner taking on Coleman.  Molner, though performing poorly last season, did have Black in every game last season and is statistically much stronger with White so that could help him erase the demons of last season.  On the other hand Coleman is coming off an amazing World Open performance so I think this game is probably close to even. (Even)

Board 4 of Shiber vs. Ju, using the players' most recent ratings gives New Jersey a more than 200 point rating edge here.  Combine that with the fact that Shiber has barely played in the past two years while Ju should be in very good form with his recent rating gains and victory at the US Cadet, NJ should have a fair edge here even with Black. (Edge New Jersey)


Overall, this match seems really too close to call.  I think I'll start things off by playing it safe and by calling this one a 2-2 tie.
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