10/26/2005

  FM Ron Young's predictions - Playoffs
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by FM Ron Young                       
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(When Ron Young talks about the "odds" he is referring to the lines posted at www.pinnaclesports.com)


New York Knights


Baltimore Kingfishers
GM Alex Stripunsky - 2663

IM Pascal Charbonneau - 2506
IM Jay Bonin - 2379

FM Tegshsuren Enkhbat - 2453
WGM elect Jenn Shahade - 2318

IM Larry Kaufman - 2331
FM Dr. Lewis Eisen - 2325

NM Ray Kaufman - 2231
Avg Rating - 2421


Avg Rating - 2380
New York Total -------


------- Baltimore Total

Stripunsky and Charbonneau have had two tough games
with each other this season. I'm sure Strip would like
to take down MVP boy, but I don't think that incentive
quite justifies the big spread. Put ten units on
Charbonneau, who seems to do well with Black. I'm
mildly tempted by the odds Bonin is getting. What the
hell, three on Bonin. Shahade is a dangerous attacker
when her king's bishop doesn't go wandering. Expect
her to keep a tight leash on it. Two on Shahade. I
had expected to get rich betting on the match result,
but now it has been explained to me that the guys at
Pinnacle are smarter than I'd thought; that the match
betting this week is on which team advances, not who
wins the match. So I predict a 2.5-1.5 NY victory but
wouldn't touch the bet at the odds. If you are
thirsting for action, just double the size of my
recommended bets.




San Francisco Mechanics


Miami Sharks         
IM Vinay Bhat - 2462

GM Julio Becerra - 2622
FM Dmitry Zilberstein - 2435

FM Marcel Martinez - 2469
FM David Pruess - 2432

IM Blas Lugo - 2426
NM Andy Lee - 2231

Jose Cabrera - 2093
Avg Rating - 2390


Avg Rating - 2401
San Francisco Total -------


------- Miami Total

Bhat has not shown the anticipated rust this season,
and it's possible that he's a genius. Getting odds
with white makes him an attractive bet, so put down
three on that game. Boards two and three both feature
very tough matchups, but either the oddsmakers or the
betting public seem to rate Miami more highly.
Unjustly, in my view, so put four units on each of
the Friscans. Lee is my favorite of the week. Ten
there. The match looks to be right on the border
between a tie and the minimum win for San Francisco,
so my prediction boils down to whether Miami is more
likely to lose a drawn game from needing to win or San
Francisco to draw a game they might have won from only
needing a tie. But people like to win when they are
winning, and they can rationalize losing a game that
they needed to win, so I pick SF to prevail by the odd
point. But again, the odds don't excite me so my
suggestion to the desperate is the same as above.




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