8/24/2006
Predictions for the 2006 USCL Season
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by NM Arun Sharma
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Arun Sharma, a big fan of the first season of the USCL, has given us
predictions for this season. The predictions cover everything from
final place in the standings, to the playoffs and the eventual final
match.
**SPOILER ALERT** - I am ensured that his predictions are accurate
approximately 100% of the time, so after reading this there may be no
reason to actually watch the games! Enjoy the predictions below!
Greetings readers! Allow me to introduce myself, my name is
Arun Sharma, and I'm a twenty six year old graduate student of
mathematics at Berkeley. I'm one of a long line of young American chess
players who was obsessed with chess during my pre-teen and early teen
years but like most other young players in the US realized the
difficulty in choosing chess as a profession and thus made the popular
decision to focus on school. Although I haven't played chess seriously
in close to ten years, I still will try to promote chess in any way I
can as I think it would be great if in the future so many of our strong
young players didn't give up the game. I think promoting the US
Chess League is a great way of doing this and so I’m excited to make
preseason predictions. While my current knowledge of chess events
may be less than many other players, I was an avid fan of the USCL last
year and so hopefully will be able to make some decent theories about
what might happen in the new season.
Eastern Division:
1st Place: New York Knights
The Knights were a super powerhouse throughout the season last
year having extremely strong results on all four boards with their only
Achilles heel being the Baltimore Kingfishers. With the notable
additions of one of their biggest rivals from last year, MVP GM Pascal
Charbonneau, along with newly crowned US Junior Champion Robert Hess, I
see no reason for those results to change this year. The main
question may be with Charbonneau switching sides, will New York be able
to overcome the only team which was able to really put a dent in them
last year?
2nd Place: Baltimore Kingfishers
The biggest surprise from last year, few predicted the
Kingfishers to take down the crown last year, but they defied the odds
numerous times and did just that. They return this year with a
virtually identical lineup as last year with of course the major
exception of the loss of GM Charbonneau. However, they have found
a capable replacement in GM Pawel Blehm and though Blehm might not end
up participating in as many matches as Charbonneau did, Baltimore's
team had extremely solid results all around so you can certainly expect
a strong showing from the Kingfishers again this year. As noted
above, it may simply come down to whether their team will be still able
to handle the Knights even with their leader and MVP having defected to
the other side.
3rd Place: Boston
Blitz.
With likely the most stacked top lineup of any team in the USCL
(this year and the last) Boston was favored to finish near the top last
year but finished a disappointing 4-6. While their superstars
fared well, their third and fourth boards each starting the season with
a sluggish 1-4 record put the Blitz in a hole which they couldn't climb
out of. Will that change this year? If their lower boards
can perform a bit better early on, with their 2 GMs last year together
on board 1 amassing a 5.5-1.5 record, Boston will surely be a huge
force. However, with Baltimore's boards 3 and 4 clearly out performing
them last year, I must give Baltimore the nod to second place.
4th Place: Carolina Cobras
Another team which had a disappointing 2005 has their work even
more cut out for them this year as the loss of GM Kaminski from their
lineup will surely weaken them a bit at the top. However, the major
improvement from Carolina must come from the two lowest boards as their
records of 3-7 and 2-8 in those places last year surely won't do if
Carolina wants to have any chance at competing for a playoff
spot. The addition to NM Oleg Zaikov who should be very capable
of amassing a solid record on board three along with NM Craig Jones,
who performed reasonably in his two matches on board three the previous
year, will likely take on the majority of the fourth board duties which
could definitely put Carolina in the hunt. However, for
that to matter Carolina will also have to keep up last year's pace on
the top boards without the aid of GM Kaminski, and it's going to be
tough for them to achieve solid results in both places so I'll have to
predict them to finish in fourth.
5th Place: Philadelphia
Masterminds
Big underdogs to perform last year, unfortunately the
Masterminds are looking at an extremely uphill battle once again. Until
GM Ehlvest becomes available, they once again are going to be severely
outgunned on the top two boards. Having achieved records of 1-9
and 3-7 on those two boards last year, and facing the same kind of
matchups this year, they surely are in an unenviable position. However,
due largely to the excellent play of NM Elvin Wilson, the Masterminds
did start last season with a 7.5-0.5 record on board four so if they
can achieve the same kind of success there anything is possible
especially when GM Ehlvest joins the effort. After all, despite
all the predictions last year, the Masterminds did knock off one of the
favorites, the Dallas Destiny, in Week 1, so don't count them out to
make some noise.
Western Division:
1st Place: San Fransisco
Mechanics
Now admittedly I might possess some personal bias here due to my
current locale along with the fact that at least three members of this
team are former students at Berkeley but I do feel the Mechanics have
to be one of the favored teams in the West. The Mechanics started
last season with a 1-5 record on both the top two boards, but with
solid play on the last two boards managed to stay in the hunt before
going on a tear at the end of the season to win the
division. This year their team is likely even stronger as the addition
of the much improved IM Friedel to the lineup should strengthen them on
top for sure. Also, with IM Bhat, who played very well last year
in his few matches on board one, they will have a very strong second
board as well. If they can keep up last year's results on the lower
boards, it's going to be very difficult from stopping the Mechanics
from repeating as regular season division champs.
2nd Place: Miami Sharks
Another team which defied the predictions last year to make the
finals, Miami returns this year still carrying their three biggest
contributors in GM Becerra, IM Lugo, and FM Martinez and thus should be
in a good spot for a repeat run at the title. The Sharks were one
of the few top teams to achieve success not via dominating a particular
board throughout the season, but rather through solid play on each
board achieving an overall winning score on the each of the first three
boards. The only minor weak spot for them was their fourth board
who generally tended to be at a fairly significant rating disadvantage
against the competition. However, Miami showed an extremely
strong ability to win when it really counted as shown by their amazing
playoff comeback vs. the Mechanics which is a huge recipe for success
in any team event. However, I still must favor the San Fransisco
team on the lowest board in general so I give them the nod to be
division champions over the Sharks. Plus with it being hurricane
season in Florida, Miami must also rely on their internet connection
not losing matches for them!
3rd Place: Seattle Sluggers
Being an expansion team of course provides less information to
make a good prediction off of, but surely this expansion team has come
armed to the teeth with a GM, two IMs, and a more than capable fourth
board in twelve year old Michael Lee, who recently knocked off an IM in
the US Open. With such a strong looking lineup many might be apt
to place them ahead of either San Fransisco or Miami, however with both
those teams having proved what they're capable of last year, I must
give them both the nod over Seattle. Just don't be surprised if you see
Seattle at the top of the standings throughout the season.
4th Place: Dallas Destiny
One of the big favorites of the 2005 season, Dallas had a very
disappointing finish overall. Their main issue was that a
slightly below 50% record on each board led to too many close losses.
Things get even tougher for them this year with the loss of GM Ramirez
from the lineup surely weakening them a bit up top. If they can
turn those close losses into wins and draws this year by squeezing out
an extra point here and there, they could wind up having a very
different season than the last as their team surely has no shortage of
talent. Without knowledge of the previous season, I might once again
have predicted for Dallas to finish near the top, with their last
year's finish along with the loss of GM Ramirez, I'm forced to relegate
them to finishing in fourth.
5th Place: Tennessee Tempo
The other expansion team is going to have their work cut out for
them. Their team is rather outgunned rating wise rather severely
by all other teams in their division. While it's fun to root for
the underdog, Tennessee is going to need more than a little luck to
make it to the playoffs.
Onto the playoffs......
Wildcard Round:
Baltimore Kingfishers vs. Boston
Blitz: Based on the way these teams position players
I would expect the lineups to be something like:
GM
Blehm - GM
Christiansen/Perelshteyn
FM
Enkhbat - FM Winer
IM
Kaufman - FM Kelleher
WGM
Rohonyan - NM Krasik
To me, no one will have a decided advantage in any of the four boards,
however I do give Baltimore a slight edge in the fourth board game due
to the rating advantage and the previous year's results. This
together with draw odds means Baltimore will probably advance.
Miami Sharks vs. Seattle
Sluggers: Again based on last year's happenings I would
expect the lineups to be along the lines of:
GM Becerra - GM Serper
IM Lugo
- IM Orlov
FM Martinzez - FM Readey
Cabrera
- Lee
and once again all four of these games will be hotly contested and
could go to either person. However, I always tend to favor youth
when it comes to chess so I will give Lee the edge in his match and so
despite the draw odds I think Seattle advances here.
Semifinals:
New York Knights vs. Baltimore
Kingfishers: Ahh the ever dramatic rematch from last year
this will be. I predict these lineups:
GM
Charbonneau - GM Blehm
IM
Krush
- FM Enkbhat
IM
Bonin
- IM Kaufmann
FM
Privman - WGM
Rohonyan
Once again, all these games should be very competitive, with both the
board two and three matches having taken place last year so based on
those results, I have to give Baltimore the slight edge on board
three. However, with their rating advantage on board four I have
to favor New York there, so overall due largely to the draw odds, New
York will get their revenge from last year.
San Fransisco Mechanics vs. Seattle
Sluggers: This matchup will probably shape up like this:
IM
Friedel - GM Serper
IM
Bhat -
IM Orlov
IM
Pruess - FM Readey
Naroditsky - Lee
This should be a very good match, especially the board four matchup of
two of the US's best youngest talents facing off (who incidentally
attended the US Chess School together and so probably have a decent
idea of what to expect from each other). I wouldn't presume to
predict a winner between those two, and most of the games are close
again though I have to favor IM Pruess especially given how well he
played last year and with draw odds San Fransisco will advance here.
Finals:
New York Knights vs. San Fransisco
Mechanics: Assuming the teams stick with the lineups
which got them here and go as such:
IM
Friedel - GM Charbonneau
IM
Bhat
- IM Krush
IM
Pruess - IM Bonin
Naroditsky - FM
Privman
As this match will have no draw odds, it's a much more difficult one to
take a stab at predicting. However, with GM Charbonneau getting
the better of this confrontation last year I have to give him the edge
in his game. The board two confrontation is a tricky one as both
IM Bhat and IM Krush took some time away from the game to focus on
school, but both seem to be back and as strong as ever as shown from
their results in the few games each played in last year's league so I
think this matchup is a real toss up. In the board three battle
both players performed very well in last year's league and have been
playing well recently so I think is basically a toss up as well.
As for the board four affair, despite my belief in generally favoring
youth, Naroditstky is at a quite a rating disadvantage here so I must
give the edge to FM Privman. On the whole because of their slight
likely edge on both the first and last board, I must predict New York
to take this match though I'm sure it will be a huge struggle whichever
side comes out on top.
I hope you all enjoyed this series of predictions, and I know I
personally am really looking forward to how the newest season pans
out. With the recent announcement of the league sponsorship from
Pokerstars, hopefully the intensity this season will be even higher
this year than the last and that interest in the league grows a great
deal.
Arun Sharma
asharma@math.berkeley.edu
"Lalu" on ICC (feel free to message me with ideas you'd like to see in
future articles, and despite what league commissioner Greg Shahade
might tell you my second note is 100% true).
Quick Predictions Recap:
East
1. New York
2. Baltimore
3. Boston
4. Carolina
5. Philadelphia
West
1. San Francisco
2. Miami
3. Seattle
4. Dallas
5. Tennessee
Playoffs:
Wild Card:
Baltimore beats Boston
Seattle beats Miami
SemiFinals:
New York beats Baltimore
San Francisco beats Seattle