Wildcard Round:

 (Note: In the playoffs, the team that finishes with a better record during the regular season, receives draw odds in all matches except for the final match.)

Queens Pioneers (5.5-4.5) vs. Boston Blitz (6.5-3.5)

  This is a match-up where whichever lineups are chosen, I don’t see either team really gaining a significant edge on any of the boards.  I might be inclined to give a bit of an edge to Queens on the fourth board due to the youth factor, but at the same time I might give similar edge to Boston on third board due to the recent display of strength by Shmelov.  Overall, with draw odds and being eager to erase the ghosts of what happened last year, I choose Boston to advance here.

Miami Sharks (5.5-4.5) vs. Dallas Destiny (5.5-4.5):

  Unlike the other wildcard pairing, I feel that there are definite edges on particular boards as I don't think Dallas has someone who can truly match up to Becerra (especially since Miami will get to pick their color as a consolation for giving up draw odds).  Board three on the other hand seems likely to favor the Destiny as Stopa showed how strong he was last year, making the 1st All Star team for Board 2.  Boards two and four might be harder to call, but it seems with the fairly significant edge that Miami should have on board one that they will overcome the draw odds, just as they did against San Francisco in the 2005 SemiFinal match.

Semifinals:

Boston Blitz (6.5-3.5) vs. New York Knights (7.5-2.5)

This would be a rematch of the 2006 semifinals with the draw odds going to New York instead of Boston. Once again these teams will be likely to play a guessing game to decide which of their many lineups will be best suited for the match, but it seems in nearly every scenario that New York will have the edge on board three, with the others not being so clear.  Add to that the fact that Charbonneau has been a thorn in Boston’s side on more than one occasion in the first two seasons and the fact that the Knights receive draw odds, New York advances here.

Miami Sharks (5.5-4.5) vs. San Francisco Mechanics (7-3)

Another semifinals rematch, just this one happening to be from the 2005 season. Just as in the Wildcard round, it seems hard for the Mechanics to place anyone who won’t be an underdog to Becerra on the top board, but I really like the Mechanics chances on boards two and three with them likely using Bhat and Pruess in those spots.  The Sharks will have the rating edge on board four, but as someone who puts a lot of faith in the power of youth over the chess board (as San Francisco has their choice of two 2100+ rated 11 year olds on board 4), I like the Mechanics chances overall especially with draw odds.  The defending champs, are probably eager for revenge after their terrible loss to Miami in 2005.

 Finals:

New York Knights (7.5-2.5) vs. San Francisco Mechanics (7-3)

Another rematch from last season seems likely here, as these two teams met in a fantastic final match. Some may feel that I lack creativity choosing these two teams in the final, but don't forget that I correctly predicted this final matchup last season (although I chose the wrong winner). Once again, both these teams have a myriad of lineups they might use here, but whichever ones they choose, I would suspect over the board it’s going to be a very tough match to call.  New York does have one big edge that they didn’t have last year though in that if it happens to go to the blitz playoff, they have Hikaru Nakamura on their roster, one of the best blitz players in the world. I simply can't see San Francisco surviving a blitz playoff in which they have to go through Nakamura.  So given New York’s edge of knowing they are in great shape in a tiebreak, I choose them to win their first USCL Championship.

I hope everyone enjoys this season of the USCL even more than the previous seasons (I’m almost sure I will!), and good luck to all the teams involved (even if you happen to make my predictions look ridiculous in the process).  If you have any comments, suggestions, or flames about any of my projections here, feel free to let me know!

Arun Sharma

“Lalu” on ICC